The historical record repeatedly validates Austrian theory. Examples include the stagflation of the 1970’s, the collapse of Soviet socialism and the economic mess we experience today. Yet, critics of free market economics studiously avoid attacking Austrian theory. Apparently, power and prestige wins out over the facts.

In order to advance funds for something as dangerously speculative as a new business venture, the lender needs to have solid evidence of financial strength. Skin in the game in the form of substantial home equity at risk by the borrower is just what the lender needs. Without it there can be no loan. Now we will see the biggest reason why housing is crucial to the economy, along with a key reason why banks are not lending despite massive excess reserves. Home equity has been wiped out!

There are two toxic notions that are bandied about that need to be killed before they do any more damage to well meaning, but woefully uninformed people from all walks of life. The first is that prices have come down so much that housing is a true bargain. The second is the grotesque idea that there is an ethical and moral dimension to paying your mortgage. The latter significantly impacts the former.

Author argues that the current debate about the state of the economy is for entertainment purposes only. He believes this is because they assume we have seen the bottom of the cycle. A more relevant debate is whether we are in for serious inflation or deflation.

There is no place to hide from the effects of the US budget binge. But, these problems are global, and considerably worse in nearly all of the rest of the industrialized world than here. Even wonderkind China is in the throes of a credit and real estate bubble that dwarfs ours. Watch out!

Author reconstructs the relationship between Harry Dent’s ‘The Great Boom Ahead’ projections and demographic data within the context of the Austrian school of economics theory.

Notions about real estate and housing developed primarily as the result of radically different approaches and behavior by homeowners and investors compared to other asset classes like stocks and bonds. The key difference is the time horizon. People routinely own real estate for many, many years, while they rarely hold positions in a stock or mutual fund for more than a year or two.

This is the fifth in a series of posts putting together the major factors showing why we are in the early stages of the deepest economic contraction the western world has experienced since the beginning of the industrial revolution.

Author shows the historical interrelationship between the consumer price index (CPI) and monetary policy as another way of presenting the Austrian school logic in economic analysis.

Author believes the monetary authorities now find it necessary to cool things off to avoid public outcry over the increased cost of living. This is accomplished by attempting to reverse the artificial credit creation techniques used to create the boom in the first place. Interest rates head higher. Capital goods industries are the first to feel the pinch as projects are postponed and curtailed. Unemployment rises and the cycle starts anew. He concludes by arguing that we are in the early stages of the greatest economic contraction since the fall of Rome and the probable collapse of our fiat currency regime.